Cannabis policy is heading into the U.S. midterm elections as a politically complicated issue, with voters in some states considering ballot measures while candidates elsewhere take opposing positions on legalization. The debate comes as the country remains divided between broad public acceptance of cannabis and its continued prohibition under federal law.
The issue could gain attention as November approaches, although voters are also focused on immigration, the economy, the conflict with Iran, and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure.
President Donald Trump added momentum to the debate in December 2025 by directing the Department of Justice to accelerate consideration of moving cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III. The change would not legalize cannabis federally, but it could reduce restrictions on scientific research and eliminate a major tax burden for licensed cannabis companies.
That shift began taking shape in April, when then-acting Attorney General Todd Blanche ordered state-authorized medical cannabis to be placed in Schedule 3. One significant consequence could involve Section 280E of the federal tax code, which prevents cannabis businesses from deducting many ordinary expenses, including utilities, wages, and rent.
Industry executives have welcomed the prospect. Sun Theory president Matthew Melander said removing the tax provision would make cannabis companies more profitable. Opponents, including Smart Approaches to Marijuana, acknowledge the financial benefit but argue that marijuana businesses should not receive special tax treatment.
Public opinion remains favorable toward legalization, though support has softened. A November Gallup survey found that 64% of American adults believe cannabis should be legal, down from 70 percent in 2023. Republican support dropped particularly sharply, while Democratic and independent voters remained more supportive.
Political divisions are also visible in Congress. Some Republican lawmakers have urged the administration not to reschedule cannabis, arguing that doing so could hurt the party politically.
Democrats have generally welcomed the federal move but criticized it as incomplete. Several Senate Democrats have again introduced legislation that would remove marijuana entirely from the federal controlled-substances system.
The November ballot will offer voters in Massachusetts and Idaho distinct choices. Idaho will consider a measure affecting lawmakers’ authority over citizen-led initiatives involving cannabis and other substances. Massachusetts voters could decide whether to repeal the state’s recreational cannabis system while preserving medical cannabis.
Meanwhile, cannabis policy is emerging in gubernatorial contests. In Kansas, Democrat Cindy Holscher supports recreational legalization, while Republican Ty Masterson opposes it. Iowa presents a similar divide, with Democrat Rob Sand backing regulated recreational cannabis and Republican Zach Lahn rejecting recreational legalization.
Whether marijuana becomes a decisive voting issue remains uncertain. Advocates see growing political momentum, while opponents argue that cannabis rarely determines election outcomes. With the midterms approaching, candidates and voters will have to decide how much weight the issue deserves alongside the broader concerns shaping the 2026 campaign.
Various businesses like Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. (NYSE: IIPR) will be tracking how the issues around marijuana policy shape the outcomes of the midterms and how that could impact the remaining years of the Trump presidency.
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